Conference Board of Canada Forecast for Regina (April 2018)*
- Regina’s real GDP will grow 2.2% in 2018 and 2.1% in 2019
- We expect Regina’s employment to increase 0.4% this year and 1.5% next
- Housing starts will reach roughly 1,600 units in 2018 and 1,700 units in 2019
Regina’s real GDP growth will remain above 2 per cent both 2018 and 2019
A similar moderate pace will prevail over the next few years, lifting Regina’s GDP to a level that will be double the 1997 volume by 2022. This implies an average annual increase of 2.7% over this period, strong by national standard.
Steady Population Growth
Despite Regina’s weaker economy over the past two years, net migration remained positive – a good sign for this city. The forecast is for net new arrivals to average just below 3,400 people per year in 2018-22, with roughly 3,100 newcomers expected this year. Regina’s net population will rise roughly 2% each year between 2018 and 2022, more than twice the 30-year average and well above the national average.
Manufacturing Expansion Persists
Regina’s surging manufacturing sector grew 8.0% in 2017, following 7.0% output expansion in 2016. The industry has done well since the recession, posting average annual expansion of 5.5% between 2010 and 2017 – despite a 2.3% drop in 2015. Both last year’s gain and its longer-term performance have been exceptional by national standards. Further local manufacturing output growth awaits – 1.7% in 2018, then 2.6% in 2019.
The past two years of outstanding output hikes finally spurred job creation. Manufacturing employment catapulted 28% in 2017; the largest increase on record, putting Regina’s manufacturing employment at an all-time high of nearly 8,200 workers.
Economic Indicators
| 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018f | 2019f | 2020f | 2021f | 2022f | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real GDP at basic prices (2007 $ millions) | 13.838 -1.0 | 13,785 -0.4 | 14,102 2.3 | 14,408 2.2 | 14,705 2.1 | 14,964 1.8 | 15,254 1.9 | 15,585 2.2 |
| Total empployment (000s) | 138 1.0 | 139 0.9 | 140 0.8 | 141 0.4 | 143 1.5 | 144 1.0 | 146 1.3 | 148 1.2 |
| Unemployment rate (%) | 4.4 | 5.3 | 5.2 | 5.8 | 5.4 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.5 |
| Household income per capita ($) | 52,277 3.6 | 51,343 -1.8 | 51,761 0.8 | 52,845 2.1 | 53,971 2.1 | 55,021 1.9 | 56,169 2.1 | 57,386 2.2 |
| Population (000s) | 241 1.8 | 247 2.6 | 253 2.5 | 258 2.0 | 263 2.0 | 269 2.1 | 275 2.1 | 280 1.9 |
| Total housing starts | 1,597 | 1,563 | 2,008 | 1,572 | 1,685 | 1,701 | 1,814 | 1,965 |
| Retail sales ($ millions) | 5,532 -1.9 | 5,623 1.6 | 5,871 4.4 | 5,951 1.4 | 6,116 2.8 | 6,277 2.6 | 6,438 2.6 | 6,575 2.1 |
| CPI (2002=1.000) | 1.315 1.4 | 1.329 1.0 | 1.346 1.3 | 1.371 1.8 | 1.398 2.0 | 1.427 2.1 | 1.456 2.0 | 1.486 2.1 |
For each indicator, the first line is the level and the second line is the percentage change from the previous period; italics indicate percentage change.
Source: Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada, CMHC Housing Time Series Database.
Real estate
| Apartment market (November 2017) | |
|---|---|
| Two-bedroom vacancy rate | 6.18% |
| Average two-bedroom rent | $1,116 |
| Regina housing market (2017 YTD) | |
|---|---|
| Unit Sales | 2,878 |
| Growth | -5.0% |
| Average Price | $320,225 |
| Growth | 0.0% |
Sources: CMHC Housing Time Series Database, Canadian Real Estate Association.
Building permits
In 2016, residential building permits were issued to create homes for 1,790 Regina families – an increase of 415 homes over 2015. According to Regina’s monthly Building Permit Report, the total value of residential construction projects for 2016 surpassed $300 million.
In 2016, 621 commercial permits were also issued, slightly down from 680 in 2015. The total value of commercial building and demolition permits issued in 2016 was $304 million. To learn more click here.
Regina office inventory
Vacancy Summary: As at June 30, 2017
| Class A (sq.ft.) | Class B (sq. ft.) | Class C (sq. ft.) | Overall (sq. ft.) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inventory | 1,573,924 | 1,475,059 | 1,363,244 | 4,432,207 |
| Vacancy | 180,698 | 108,388 | 274,077 | 563,163 |
| Occupied Space | 1,431,226 | 1,366,671 | 1,089,167 | 3,869,664 |
| Vacancy Rate | 11.34% | 7.35% | 20.10% | 12.71% |
| Regina office rental rates | |
|---|---|
| Class A New | $34.00-$36.00 |
| Class A | $20.00-$24.00 |
| Class B New | $26.00-$30.00 |
| Class B | $14.00-$18.00 |
| Class C | $10.00-$14.00 |
Source: Harvard Real Estate Inc. Market Overview, September 2017.
Industrial vacancy
| Market Indicator (relative to prior period) | Market Q1 2017 | Market Q3 2017 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Industrial Inventory | 18,600,734 | 18,650,616 |  |
| Net Absorption | -226,769 | 20,365 | |
| Vacancy Rate | 3.26% | 3.41% | |
| Average Asking Rent** | $11.21 | $11.04 |  |
| Average Additional Rent | $3.75 | $3.75 |  |
**Average Asking Net Rent is calculated using a weighted average
Source: Colliers International Regina Industrial Market Report, Q1 2017
