Conference Board of Canada Forecast for Regina (April 2020)*
- Regina’s real GDP is forecast to grow 1.8% in 2020 and match that gain in 2021
- We expect Regina’s employment to increase 2% this year and next
- Housing starts will reach roughly 1,200 units in 2020 and 1,400 units in 2020
Regina’s real GDP growth will remain modest in 2020 and 2021
A similar moderate pace will prevail over the next few years, lifting Regina’s GDP to a level that will be double the 1997 volume by 2022. This implies an average annual increase of 2.7% over this period, strong by national standard.
Steady Population Growth
Despite Regina’s weaker economy over the past two years, net migration remained positive – a good sign for this city. The forecast is for net new arrivals to average around 3,300 people per year in 2020-23, with roughly 3,000 newcomers expected this year. Regina’s net population will rise roughly 1.7% each year between 2019 and 2023, which is well above its 30-year average.
modest service growth continues
We expect Regina’s services sector to expand 1.5 percent in 2019, down slightly from 1.7 percent in 2018. Our call is for improved 2.1 percent growth in 2020. This year we expect higher output in 10 of our 12 service industries, an improvement from the expansion of nine industries in 2018. In 2020, 11 of the service industries should expand.
Economic Indicators
| 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021f | 2022f | 2023f | 2024f | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real GDP at market prices (2012 $ millions) | 17,044 1.8 | 17,264 1.3 | 17,309 0.3 | 17,563 1.5 | 17,906 2.0 | 18,336 2.4 | 18,792 2.5 | 19,176 2.0 |
| Total employment (000s) | 141 1.1 | 140 -0.3 | 144 2.4 | 146 1.5 | 148 1.5 | 151 1.7 | 153 1.9 | 156 1.9 |
| Unemployment rate (%) | 5.1 | 5.9 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 4.6 |
| Household income per capita ($) | 52,240 0.7 | 51,735 -1.0 | 52,894 2.2 | 54,805 3.6 | 56,551 3.2 | 58,313 3.1 | 60,292 3.4 | 62,103 3.0 |
| Population (000s) | 252 2.6 | 257 2.3 | 262 1.8 | 266 1.4 | 269 1.4 | 273 1.4 | 277 1.4 | 281 1.3 |
| Total housing starts | 1,923 | 1,139 | 561 | 1,252 | 1,473 | 1,694 | 1,874 | 1,885 |
| Retail sales ($ millions) | 5,806 5.4 | 5,771 -0.6 | 5,805 0.6 | 6,021 3.7 | 6,268 4.1 | 6,505 3.8 | 6,763 4.0 | 6,987 3.3 |
| CPI (2002=1.000) | 1.352 1.7 | 1.384 2.4 | 1.404 1.5 | 1.430 1.8 | 1.459 2.0 | 1.489 2.0 | 1.520 2.0 | 1.550 2.0 |
For each indicator, the first line is the level and the second line is the percentage change from the previous period; italics indicate percentage change.
Source: Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada, CMHC Housing Time Series Database.
Real estate
| Apartment market (November 2018) | |
|---|---|
| Two-bedroom vacancy rate | 7.7% |
| Average two-bedroom rent | $1,041 |
| Regina housing market (2018) | |
|---|---|
| Unit Sales | 2,465 |
| Growth | -8% |
| Average Price | $267,400 |
| Growth | -5.27% |
Sources: Association of Regina Realtors.
Building permits
In 2018, residential building permits were issued to create homes for 1,089 Regina families – a decrease of 421 homes over 2017. According to Regina’s monthly Building Permit Report, the total value of residential construction projects for 2017 was $205 million.
In 2018, 470 commercial permits were also issued, slightly up from 428 in 2017. The total value of commercial building and demolition permits issued in 2018 was $203 million. To learn more click here.
Regina office inventory
Vacancy Summary: As at February, 2020
| Overall (sq. ft.) | |
|---|---|
| Inventory | 4,858,483 |
| Vacancy Rate | 12.88% |
| Regina office rental rates | |
|---|---|
| Class A New | $34.00-$36.00 |
| Class A | $20.00-$24.00 |
| Class B New | $26.00-$30.00 |
| Class B | $14.00-$18.00 |
| Class C | $9.00-$14.00 |
Source: Harvard Real Estate Inc.
Industrial vacancy
| Market Indicator (relative to prior period) | Market Q3 2018 | Market Q4 2018 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Industrial Inventory | 18,688,667 | 18,876,119 |  |
| Net Absorption | -44,680 | 80,000 | |
| Vacancy Rate | 4.62% | 4.3% |  |
| Average Asking Rent** | $10.60 | $10.90 |  |
| Average Additional Rent | $4.00 | $4.00 |  |
**Average Asking Net Rent is calculated using a weighted average
Source: Colliers International.
